December 8, 2023

Vistry Group

The UK housing market is egregiously undersupplied to the tune of millions of homes. However, due to regulatory impediments, high capital demands, cyclicality, and now elevated interest rates, new construction has continually failed to rectify the imbalance. As a result, there is wide support across all levels of the UK government for financial aid to potential homeowners and for initiatives to increase home construction.

Against this backdrop, UK homebuilder Vistry Group (VTY.L) is transitioning to a pure-play “partnerships” business model that combines the financial and land resources of local authorities/housing associations, the central government, and even financial institutions with those of the homebuilder to create a capital-light home construction enterprise at the center of a virtuous cycle for all stakeholders. Unlike traditional homebuilders, “partnerships”model builders pre-sell over 50% of their homes at affordable prices mostly to cycle-agnostic local councils/housing associations, shortening cash collection times and considerably reducing the business’s cyclicality and interest rate sensitivity. Vistry’s shift from a hybrid traditional/partnerships housebuilder to a pure-play “partnerships” business will not only make it the UK’s largest affordable housing manufacturer but will also drastically improve its revenue stability and visibility, return on capital, and earnings potential.

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